As the 2024 presidential election lurks around the corner, Americans highly anticipate the results of the hotly contested race between former President and Republican nominee, Donald Trump, and Vice President and Democrat nominee, Kamala Harris.
Below is a comprehensive guide for the average viewer of what to watch for on Nov. 5, as the polls begin to close across the country.
7 p.m.
Polls close: Georgia, Kentucky, Indiana, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia
Expected calls: Kentucky, Indiana, South Carolina, and Vermont
Too early/close to call: Georgia and Virginia
Kentucky, Indiana, and South Carolina are all Republican strongholds, and most networks will call these states right as polls close, or close thereafter. Meanwhile, Vermont and its three electoral votes will likely be called for Harris as the polls close.
The most closely watched state at this hour is Georgia, a former Republican stronghold turned battleground state. In 2020, President Biden won the state by just under 12,000 votes, or 0.3 percent, according to CNN.
Most likely, Georgia will not be called for some time. Despite that, generally Georgia is known for counting votes relatively fast so Americans should have a good indication on how close the race is later in the night.
Perhaps the most interesting state at 7 p.m. is Virginia. In 2020, President Biden carried the state by over 10 percentage points but just a year later, Republican Glenn Youngkin would win the governor’s mansion as he defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe.
Due to the demographics of Virginia and how it counts votes, Republicans often build a big lead over Democrats until the larger, more urban counties votes are tabulated. In 2020, most networks opted out of calling Virgina until later in the night, but some, like Fox News, called it as soon as the polls closed.
If networks do call Virginia early on in the night, it could be a good sign for the Harris campaign. If networks decline to project a winner, it could be a sign of a close night.
7:30 p.m.
Polls close: North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virgina
Expected calls: West Virginia
Too early/close to call: North Carolina and Ohio
Just three states close at 7:30 p.m. However, two, North Carolina and Ohio, are crucial to Trump’s chances of victory.
West Virginia will likely be called for Trump immediately, as it is a Republican stronghold.
Meanwhile, North Carolina and Ohio both count votes fairly quick so Americans will get a good sense of how things are going as the night rolls on. It is likely that the early vote totals will skew Democrat, but as election day votes are counted it will become tighter.
Ohio is a state Trump comfortably won in 2016 and 2020 and is favored to win yet again, despite its previous height as a critical swing state. If Trump’s margins in Ohio are the same or better than in 2016 and 2020, it could be a sign he’s in for a good night. If his margins are less, it could be a sign for a good night for Harris.
North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Democrat in the presidential election since Barrack Obama won it in 2008, but it’s been close each cycle since. In 2020, it was one of the last states called, with Trump winning it by just over one percentage point.
Currently, Trump is up in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average by one point.
8:00 p.m.
Polls close: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Tennessee
Expected calls: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Tennessee
Too early/close to call: Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania
The 8 p.m. hour features the largest poll closings of the night. Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Tennessee are all Republican strongholds while Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island are all Democratic strongholds, and most will be called by news outlets right at 8 p.m. or soon thereafter.
The most closely watched state at this hour is Pennsylvania, which Trump carried in 2016 but President Biden carried in 2020. It is highly possible that no call will be made in Pennsylvania on election night, depending on how close it is.
Similar to Ohio, Florida used to be one of the biggest battleground states but Republicans have taken control of the state. In 2022, Republican Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election by nearly 20 percentage points.
Last time around, Trump took Florida comfortably by over three points, but many outlets waited to call the race until after midnight. However, DecisionDeskHQ projected Trump as the winner in 2020 soon after polls closed.
If networks do call Florida early, which is likely, and Trump’s margins are larger than 2020, it is a good sign for the Trump campaign. Like other states, however, if Florida is closer than that, it’s likely a good sign for the Harris campaign.
8:30 p.m.
Expected calls: Arkansas
Too early/close to call: n/a
Just one state closes at this time and it will likely be projected as a Trump victory as soon as the polls close.