As the 2024 presidential election lurks around the corner, Americans highly anticipate the results of the hotly contested race between former President and Republican nominee, Donald Trump, and Vice President and Democrat nominee, Kamala Harris.
Below is a comprehensive guide for the average viewer of what to watch for on Nov. 5, as the polls begin to close across the country.
9:00 p.m.
Polls close: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming
Expected calls: Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming
Too early/close to call: Arizona, Iowa, New Mexico, Texas, and Wisconsin
Like other poll closings, Republican and Democrat strongholds at this hour will likely be called as soon as the polls close.
In this hour, states like Colorado and New Mexico will likely vote for Harris but networks may be hesitant to call right at the top of the hour. Similarly, Iowa and Texas will likely vote for Trump but likely by less than 10 points and networks will hesitate to call them until more votes come in.
Two of the most closely watched states at this hour are Arizona and Wisconsin. Arizona used to be a Republican stronghold but President Biden carried the state by a slim margin in 2020. Many Americans may remember how Fox News and the Associated Press called Arizona for Biden with around 75 percent of the vote in, and received pushback from not just the Trump campaign, but other networks as well, who criticized that the call was made prematurely.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin has the opposite story. It was a Democrat stronghold until 2016 when Trump carried the state, and also received an early call from Fox News. Then in 2020, President Biden would take the state back by just under a percentage point.
In Michigan, which like Wisconsin was carried by Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, it may be a while before networks project a winner as polls have shown the race to be tight.
In Minnesota, which was won by Democrats in 2016 and 2020, networks will likely wait a little to project a winner, but it will likely go for Harris.
10:00 p.m.
Polls close: Montana, Nevada, and Utah
Expected calls: Montana
Too early/close to call: Nevada and Utah
The only contested state at this hour is Nevada, which, despite being won by the Democratic nominee in 2016 and 2020, is trending more and more Republican.
Montana and Utah will both likely be won by Trump, with Utah not being called right away as networks usually wait for more data to come in.
Nevada is also notorious for counting votes slowly so it may be a while before networks project a winner.
11:00 p.m.
Polls close: California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington
Expected calls: California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington
Too early/close to call: n/a
Perhaps the least interesting poll closings of the night as all states will likely be called right at the top of the hour.
12:00 a.m.
Polls close: Hawaii
Expected calls: Hawaii
Just one state closes at this hour, and its four electoral votes will likely be awarded to Harris.
1:00 a.m.
Polls close: Alaska
Expected calls: n/a
Too early/close to call: Alaska
While it’s highly unlikely Trump doesn’t take Alaska, it is known for counting votes very slowly and with Trump only winning by a little over 10 points in 2020, networks will probably hesitate to make a call so early.
Battleground state calls
The first “battleground” state to be called will probably be Virginia from anywhere between the 10 p.m. and 11 p.m. poll closings. Networks will also call Ohio during or slightly after this timeframe.
As for the other battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), it is hard to say when exactly networks will be comfortable and have enough data to project a winner.
In states like Georgia and North Carolina, viewers will likely have a good handle on how close the race is there by midnight. If the margins are sizable enough, some networks may be able to project a winner.
The story is similar in states like Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, although many pundits estimate the race will be too close to call in those states.
Finally, Arizona and Nevada may be some of the last states to be called, depending on how the night shakes out.